天然气在中国能源转型中的桥接作用--基于UCRCD模型的研究

The bridging role of natural gas in China’s energy transition--a study based on UCRCD model

中国所面临的气候问题日益严重,中国政府迫切需要实现能源转型。就中国的能源结构和能源消费量来看,天然气作为过渡能源是可行的。基于2001—2021年中国煤炭、石油、天然气和可再生能源(太阳能、水能、风能和核能)的年度消费量数据来分析两两能源品种之间的竞争合作关系,分析天然气在其中的作用演化。结果表明,可再生能源对煤炭呈现出替代关系,但其替代程度低于天然气对煤炭、可再生能源对天然气、“天然气+”对煤炭的替代程度,“天然气+太阳能”和“天然气+风能”的组合对煤炭的替代程度高于天然气对煤炭的替代程度。

The climate problem faced by China is becoming more and more serious,and the Chinese government urgently needs to realize energy transformation.In terms of China’s energy structure and energy consumption,natural gas is feasible as a transitional energy source.Based on the annual consumption data of coal,oil,natural gas and renewable energy(solar,hydro,wind and nuclear)in China from 2001 to 2021,this paper analyzes the competition and cooperation relationship between two energy varieties,and analyzes the evolution of the role of natural gas in it.The results show that renewable energy has a substitution relationship with coal,but its substitution degree is lower than that of natural gas to coal,renewable energy to natural gas,and“natural gas+”to coal.At the same time,the combination of“natural gas+solar energy”and“natural gas+wind energy”has a higher substitution degree for coal than that of natural gas to coal.