中国成品油市场2023年回顾与2024年供需分析预测

Examining the Chinese Refined Oil Market in 2023 and For ecasting Supply and Demand in 2024

回顾2023年中国成品油市场发展,结合国内经济发展各种因素,对2024年成品油市场进行预测。分析认为:2023年中国成品油需求持续复苏,消费属性突出的汽油和航空煤油(航煤)消费大幅增长,经济增速加快拉动柴油消费温和增长,中国成品油消费量预估为3.66×10^(8)t,同比增长12.2%,为2011年以来再次出现两位数增长;成品油消费税扩围征收提高了调合油的原料成本,减少了低价资源数量;出口配额大幅增加则缓解了国内资源过剩压力。2024年,消费对经济增长的贡献将继续加大,航煤消费将持续快速增长,汽车电动化将导致汽油消费增速大幅放缓,能耗双控逐步转向碳排放双控,柴油消费量将重回下降通道。2024年中国成品油市场仍将呈现供需双增的良好态势,消费量预计为3.69×10^(8)t,较2023年小幅增长0.8%;地方炼厂成品油资源持续增加,国内成品油过剩规模将超过5000×10^(4)t,国内市场竞争形势依然严峻。

This paper analyzes and assesses the evolution of the Chinese refined oil market in 2023 and forecasts the market for refined oil in 2024 by integrating a number of domestic economic development variables.The paper claims that in 2023,China’s demand for refined oil products recovered further,with notable increases in the consumption of gasoline and aviation kerosene—two products with exceptional consumption qualities—and a moderate increase in the consumption of diesel due to the country’s faster-than-expected economic growth.Consequently,the predicted refined oil consumption in China for that year is 3.66×10^(8)t,representing a 12.2%year-over-year increase and another double-digit gain since 2011.The quantity of inexpensive resources is reduced and the cost of blended oil’s raw materials rises as a result of the higher consumption tax on refined oil products.The large rise in export quotas relieves the pressure of having too many domestic resources.In 2024,as long as consumption growth continues to contribute to economic growth,jet fuel consumption will rise quickly;the electrification of cars will cause the growth rate of gasoline consumption to significantly slow down;dual control over energy consumption will gradually transition to dual control over carbon emissions;and diesel consumption is predicted to go back down the downward channel.China’s refined oil market is predicted to continue showing a positive trend of rising supply and demand in 2024,with consumption estimated to be 3.69×10^(8)t,up 0.8%from 2023.Due to the continuous growth in independent refineries’refined oil resources,the domestic refined oil surplus is anticipated to exceed 5000×10^(4)t,creating fierce competition within the domestic market.