2024年成品油价格分析与趋势预测

Analysis and Trend Prediction of Refined Oil Price in 2024

成品油价格与国际原油价格走势密切相关。2023年,受国际原油价格波动、国内经济回暖、新能源汽车发展等因素影响,中国成品油市场供需关系发生明显变化。综合成品油市场供需基本面和非基本面因素,结合预测模型与专家判断,对2024年汽油、柴油批发价格进行预测。研究结果表明,受“双碳”目标影响,汽油产能扩张受限。叠加油品标准升级与政府监管加强等因素,柴油产量可能小幅下降。国内经济回升向好,有望提振成品油消费市场活力。在新能源汽车快速发展背景下,车用燃料清洁替代将使汽油供需更加宽松。基础建设投资的增加有望推动柴油需求增长。展望2024年,预计汽油市场供需趋于宽松,92号汽油年均批发价为9000~9300元/吨,柴油市场供需偏紧,0号柴油年均批发价为7900~8200元/吨。

Refined oil prices are closely related to the trend of international crude oil price.In 2023,the supply and demand relationship in China’s refined oil market altered dramatically,owing to international crude oil price fluctuations,domestic economic recovery,the development of new energy vehicles,etc.This paper comprehensively considers factors such as supply and demand,imports and exports,inventory levels,crude oil markets,geopolitics,and environmental policies.Using prediction models and expert judgment,this paper forecasts the 2024 wholesale price trends for gasoline and diesel.The results show that,influenced by the“dual carbon”goals,the expansion of gasoline production capacity is limited.Combined with the upgrading of oil standards and the strengthening of government supervision,diesel production may decline slightly.Besides,the domestic economic recovery is expected to boost the refined oil consumption market.The development of new energy vehicles and clean energy substitution will likely ease gasoline supply and demand.Increased investment in infrastructure is anticipated to drive diesel demand growth.In 2024,the gap between the supply and demand in the gasoline market is expected to ease,with an average wholesale price of 9000~9300 CNY/ton for No.92 gasoline.In contrast,the gap between the production and demand of diesel is likely to widen,with an average wholesale price of 7900~8200 CNY/ton for No.0 diesel.