生态资产评估价值与区域经济耦合研究——以昆明市为例

Study on the Coupling of Ecological Asset Assessment Value and Regional Economy— A Case Study of Kunming City

生态文明建设与经济发展密切相关,深入探讨生态环境与经济发展的关系,是促进两者协同发展的关键。以昆明市为研究对象,选择8项指标计算生态资产评估价值,选择6项指标反映经济发展水平。通过构建模型,对生态资产评估价值与经济水平综合评价值耦合情况进行分析和预测,并研究生态系统中代表性指标对经济发展产生的影响。结果表明:(1)昆明市生态资产评估价值在2010-2020年总体显著上升,增长率达到59.4%。其中农林牧渔价值、固碳释氧价值和景观旅游价值上升幅度较大;(2)昆明市在2010-2012年处于失调状态,在2013-2020年达到协调状态。相对发展情况由经济滞后变为生态滞后,二者不能实现同步增长,系统矛盾显现;(3)通过预测得出昆明市未来五年耦合协调度均大于1,即生态环境与经济发展将维持优质协调状态;(4)根据相关分析可知农业牧渔、土壤保持、固碳释氧和景观旅游这4个指标对经济水平影响较大,由回归结果得出均为正向影响,即增加其价值可以提高经济水平。

The construction of ecological civilization is closely related to economic development.To explore the relationship between ecological environment and economic development is the key to promote their coordinated development.Taking Kunming as the research object,this paper selects 8 indicators to calculate the assessed value of ecological assets and 6 indicators to reflect the level of economic development.By constructing a model,the coupling of ecological asset assessment value and economic level comprehensive assessment value is analyzed and predicted,and the impact of representative indicators in the ecosystem on economic development is studied.The results showed that:①The assessed value of ecological assets in Kunming increased significantly from^(2)010 to 2020,with a growth rate of 59.4%.Among them,the value of agriculture,forestry,animal husbandry and fishery,the value of carbon sequestration and oxygen release and the value of landscape tourism increased greatly.②Kunming City was in a state of imbalance from^(2)010 to 2012,and reached a state of coordination from^(2)013 to 2020.The relative development has changed from economic lag to ecological lag.The two cannot achieve synchronous growth,and the systematic contradictions appear.③The coupling coordination degree of Kunming city in the next five years is greater than 1,that is,the ecological environment and economic development will maintain a high-quality coordination state;④According to the correlation analysis,it can be seen that the four indicators of agriculture,husbandry and fishery,soil conservation,carbon fixation and oxygen release and landscape tourism have a great impact on the economic level,and the regression results show that the impact is positive,that is,increasing their value can improve the economic level.