防止返贫帮扶政策效果评估——基于劳动收入的视角

Evaluation of Assistance Policy to Prevent Return to Poverty:From the Perspective of Labor Incom

增强脱贫地区和脱贫群众的内生发展动力是巩固拓展脱贫攻坚成果,实现乡村全面振兴的必要前提。本文将2019年底防止返贫动态监测系统的建立作为一项准自然实验,基于2021~2022年我国中部地区X地级市所有建档立卡脱贫户和边缘户的全样本面板追踪数据,通过模糊断点回归方法考察了防止返贫帮扶政策的劳动收入效应。研究发现:第一,防止返贫帮扶政策显著提高了易返贫群体的劳动收入,这一增长效应主要源于劳动参与率和劳动工资率的提升及劳动时间的延长。第二,机制分析表明,政府的就业帮扶政策中,设立公益岗位、推动以工代赈、鼓励创业带动和加速劳务输出4项政策能够直接带来显著的收入效应,而发放外出务工补贴和进行技能培训两项政策无显著的收入效应。同时,非就业帮扶中的健康帮扶和基础设施建设帮扶也间接提高了易返贫群体的劳动收入。第三,防止返贫帮扶政策队伍养护压力或家庭成员健康的农村易返贫户作用更显著。防止返贫帮扶政策的不足之处是,尚未显著提高易返贫群体的劳动生产率,同时还在一定程度上减少了家庭的农业生产活动。本文提出的防止返贫帮扶政策的内生发展动力效应,对进一步完善农村易返贫群体的帮扶政策体系具有重要的政策含义。

Enhancing the endogenous development impetus of areas and people out of poverty is a prerequisite for consolidating and expanding the achievements of poverty alleviation and realizing the comprehensive revitalization of the rural regions.This paper establishes the dynamic monitoring system for preventing return to poverty at the end of 2019 as a quasi-natural experiment.Based on the full sample panel tracking data of registered poverty alleviation households and marginal households in prefecture-level city X in central China from 2021 to 2022,the labor income effect of the support policy for preventing return to poverty is investigated through the fuzzy regression discontinuity design.The research findings are as follows:Firstly,the policy of preventing return to poverty significantly increases the labor income of rural groups prone to return to poverty.This growth effect is mainly due to the increase in labor participation rate,labor wage rate,and working hours.Secondly,the mechanism analysis shows that the four policies among the government's employment assistance policies,namely,setting up public welfare posts,promoting work relief,encouraging entrepreneurship,and accelerating labor export,can directly bring significant income effects,while the other two policies,namely,granting migrant worker subsidies and skill training,have no significant income effects.Thirdly,the effect of the policy on preventing return to poverty is more significant for ruralhouseholds prone toreturning to poverty without caring pressure or whose family members are healthy.The deficiency of the policy is that it does not significantly improve the labor productivity of the group prone to return to poverty.At the same time,it reduces the agricultural production activities of the family to a certain extent.The endogenous development dynamic effect of the policy of preventing return to poverty has important policy implications for further improving the policy system of helping rural groups prone to returning to poverty.