广东能源与经济发展关系演变的实证分析

Empirical Research on the Evolution of Relationship Between Energy and Economic Development in Guangdong

[目的]改革开放以来,广东在经济建设、能源发展上取得了显著成就。当前广东省经济已由高速增长阶段转向高质量发展阶段。在当今世界“百年未有之大变局”影响和“双碳”目标与产业转型升级的迫切需求下,广东省经济发展与能源消费关系的底层逻辑逐步改变。充分理解能源消耗与经济发展的关系,是最优化资源配置并利用好“双碳”机遇促进中国能源和经济协同高质量发展不可或缺的理论基础。[方法]选取有代表性的关键指标数据整合并使用格兰杰因果性检验量化分析广东省改革开放以来各个发展阶段下能源消费与经济增长的关系。[结果]分析结果显示,在改革开放至今的整个时间段上能源消费与经济增长间体现了不一致的统计关系方向,而20世纪90年代进入工业化中后期后,经济增长是能源消费显著的格兰杰原因。[结论]改革开放以来,广东省在不同发展阶段下能源与经济关系出现变化,工业化中期开始制造业的高速发展带动了能源消费增长,呈现出明显的需求导向特征。

[Introduction]Since the initiation of China's"reform and opening up"policy in 1978,Guangdong Province has achieved significant progress in economic growth and energy sector development.The provincial economy has shifted from rapid growth to emphasizing high-quality development.In the face of profound changes unseen in a century around the world and the imminent need to achieve"carbon peak and neutrality"goals,as well as industrial transformation and upgrading,the underlying relationship between energy consumption and economic development has gradually evolved in Guangdong.Therefore,a comprehensive understanding of this new relationship serves as a theoretical grounding for the allotment of resources and utilization of opportunities arising under the"carbon peak and neutrality"goals,which is indispensable to facilitating high-quality and coordinated development in the energy sector and economy development.[Method]A quantitative analysis of the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth in different development stages of Guangzhou since 1987 was presented,using representative energy and economic indicators and through the Granger causality test.[Result]The results reveal that the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth in Guangdong is not statistically consistent throughout the entire period from 1987 until now.However,economic development became a significant Granger cause for the surge in energy consumption after Guangdong entered its middle and later stage of industrialization in the mid-90s.[Conclusion]Guangdong has experienced a changing relationship between energy and economy in its different stages of development since 1987.The rapid growth of the manufacturing sector has stimulated the growth in energy consumption,exhibiting a distinct characteristic of demand-driven growth.