抚州市近63年气温变化特征分析

Characteristics of Temperature Change in Fuzhou City in Recent 63 Years

利用抚州市1960—2022年气象观测站的气温资料,采用线性回归、距平计算、Mann-Kendall突变检验等方法对抚州市近63年气温的变化特征及其对农业的影响进行了分析,结果表明:(1)1960—2022年间,抚州市的年平均气温以0.202℃/10 a的幅度上升,其中20世纪70、80年代的气温明显偏冷,90年代中期后气温进入明显增暖期,年平均气温变化未发生突变;(2)年极端最低气温以0.513℃/10 a的幅度上升,冬季区域性低温冻害日数年均为4.5 d,区域性低温天气过程以持续2~5 d为主,占总次数的68.5%;(3)年极端最高气温以0.042℃/10 a的幅度上升,7月的高温天气日数出现最多,占高温总日数的41%,其次是8月,占高温总日数的35.5%,高温天气过程以持续3~5 d为主,占高温天气总次数的49.1%;(4)抚州市早稻高温逼熟发生频数空间分布不均匀,其中西北部是高值中心,而西部、南部是低值区。

Based on the temperature data of meteorological observation station in Fuzhou from 1960 to 2022,the variation characteristics of temperature in Fuzhou in recent 63 years and its impact on agriculture were analyzed by linear regression,anomaly calculation and Mann-Kendall mutation test.The results showed that:(1)The average annual temperature in Fuzhou increased at a rate of 0.202℃/10 a.In the 1970s and 1980s,the temperature was significantly colder.Since the mid-1990s,the temperature has entered a significant warming period,and the annual average temperature change has not changed abruptly.(2)The annual extreme minimum temperature increased at a rate of 0.513℃/10 a.The number of regional low temperature freezing injury days in winter is 4.5 days per year,and the regional low temperature weather process is mainly continuous 2~5 days,accounting for 68.5%of the total number.(3)The annual extreme maximum temperature increased at a rate of 0.042℃/10 a.The highest number of high temperature weather days occurs in July,accounting for 41%of the total number of high temperature days,followed by August,accounting for 35.5%.The high temperature weather process mainly lasted for 3~5 days,accounting for 49.1%of the total number.(4)The frequency distribution of early rice heat-forced maturity is uneven.The northwest is the high value center,and the west and south are the low value areas.