应用LMDI模型的江西省交通运输业碳排放驱动力分析

Driving Force Analysis of Transportation Industry Carbon Emissions in Jiangxi Province Using LMDI Model

通过统计分析江西省2011-2020年公路运输、水路运输、铁路运输和民航运输总的能源消耗数据,确定了江西省交通运输业二氧化碳排放的变化趋势。利用对数平均权重(LMDI)法,分析了模式分担、能源结构、规模效应、能源强度、经济效应对江西省交通运输部门碳排放变化产生的不同影响。研究结果表明:2011-2020年,江西省能源使用最多的是汽油和柴油;公路运输部门是江西省交通运输部门碳排放最多的部门;对碳排放的增长起推动作用的是模式分担与经济效应,起抑制作用的是能源结构与规模效应,而能源强度波动较大。

Through statistic analysis of the total energy consumption data of the road transportation,the waterway transportation,the railway transportation,and the civil aviation transportation in Jiangxi Province from 2011 to 2020,the change trend of carbon dioxide emissions from the transportation industry in Jiangxi Province is determined.Using the logarithmic mean weight division index(LMDI)method,the mode sharing,the energy structure,the scale effect,the energy intensity,and the economic effect on the carbon emission changes of the transportation sector in Jiangxi Province are analyzed.The research results show that from 2011 to 2020,the gasoline and diesel are the most used energy sources in Jiangxi Province;highway transportation is the sector with the highest carbon emission in the transportation sectors of Jiangxi Province;the mode sharing and the economic effect play a driving role in the growth of carbon emission,the energy structure effect and the scale effect play a restraining role,while the energy intensity fluctuates greatly.