战略性金属矿产供需关系评估——基于风电产业链的研究

Rising imbalance between supply and demand of strategic metal minerals:A study based on wind power industry

随着中国能源结构转型的推进,风电装机规模持续扩大,风电产业链各环节对战略性矿产的需求快速增长,战略性矿产的可持续供给问题成为保证中国风电产业高质量发展的战略性问题。采用广义翁氏模型对钕、镨、铽、镝、钼、镍、铜7种培育风电产业链所需的金属原材料开展了产量预测和开采路径模拟。同时,考虑市场份额、技术进步和回收利用情况,设计风电产业的低速发展情境、基准情境以及高速发展情境,计算了不同情境下钕、镨、铽、镝、钼、镍、铜7种金属原材料的未来需求量。基于此,对比分析风电产业链中战略性金属矿产资源的供需状态,为保障风电产业链金属矿产资源合理供给提出政策建议。

With the transformation of China's energy structure,the installation scale of wind power continues to expand and the demand for strategic minerals in all segments of the wind power becomes a strategic issue of the high-quality development of China's wind power industry.In this paper,a generalized Weng's model is used to forecast the production and simulate the mining paths of seven raw metals required to cultivate the wind power industry chain:neodymium,praseodymium,terbium,dysprosium,molybdenum,nickel and copper.At the same time,the future demands for the aforementioned seven raw metals are calculated under different scenarios where market share,technological progress and recycling are taken into account.Based on this,the supply and demand status of strategic metal mineral industry chain is analized and policys to promote sustainable supply of strategic minerals for the power industry chain are suggested.