人口“数量-质量”转换、经济增长与养老金可持续性研究

A Study on the"Quantity-Quality"Transformation of Population,Economic Growth and Pension Sustainability

党的二十大报告中强调要发展多层次、多支柱、可持续的养老保险体系,但随着人口老龄化问题加剧,劳动占比下降、老年抚养比上升等问题开始影响养老制度可持续性。本文从人口数量-质量转换视角,先建立数理模型研究人口结构变动对经济增长和养老金可持续性的影响,再通过数值模拟分析不同老龄化程度下人口结构变化的宏观经济结果,最后以2001—2022年全国30个省、直辖市、自治区的省级面板数据为样本(剔除西藏)进行实证检验。结果显示:(1)人口数量结构转变对经济增长存在显著的负向影响,人口质量结构转变对经济增长存在显著的正向影响;人口质量提高会缓解人口数量下降给经济增长带来的冲击,即人口数量-质量转换可以促进经济增长。(2)人口质量提高通过促进经济增长增强养老金可持续性。(3)人口数量-质量转换可以增强养老金可持续性。无论以教育投资为代表的人力资本水平提高是父代主动的、有意识的行为,还是行政性政策的结果,人口质量的提高都有利于促进经济增长和维持养老金收支平衡。

The report of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China emphasized the need to develop a multi-level,multi pillar,and sustainable pension insurance system.However,with the aging population,the decline in labor proportion,and the increase in elderly dependency ratio,issues have begun to affect the sustainability of the pension system.From the perspective of population quantity quality transformation,this paper first establishes a mathematical model to study the impact of population structure changes on economic growth and pension sustainability,then analyzes the macroeconomic results of population structure changes under different population aging levels through nu-merical simulation,and finally conducts an empirical test with the provincial panel data of 30 provinces,municipalities and autonomous regions in China from 2001 to 2022(excluding Xizang).The results show that:(1)population quantity structure transformation has a significant negative impact on economic growth,while population quality structure transformation has a significant positive impact on economic growth;The improvement of population quality will alleviate the impact of population decline on economic growth,that is,the population quality transition can promote economic growth.(2)The improvement of population quality enhances the sustainability of pension funds by promoting economic growth.(3)The transition between population quantity and quality can enhance the sustainability of pension funds.Whether the improvement of human capital level,represented by education investment,is a proactive and conscious behavior of the parents or a result of administrative policies,the improvement of population quality is conducive to promoting economic growth and maintaining the balance of pension income and expenditure.