基于GDELT事件数据的东南亚国家地缘政治风险测度与分析

Measurement and analysis of geopolitical risk in Southeast Asian countries based on GDELT event data

随着我国“走出去”战略和“一带一路”倡议的持续推进,对海外地缘政治风险研究的需求也与日俱增。东南亚地区是“一带一路”建设重点地区,地缘环境十分复杂,地缘政治事件频发。通过事件分析刻画东南亚国家地缘政治风险的等级,并分析其时空特征有重要的理论和实践意义。本研究发现:①东南亚地缘政治风险总体稳定可控,但内部时空差异较大。菲律宾和缅甸的地缘风险水平相对较高,老挝、新加坡、东帝汶和越南较低,其他国家则处于波动状态。②印尼、柬、泰、马等四国地缘政治风险受内部事件影响高于其他五国,国家内部问题亟待解决;文莱、老挝、东帝汶、越南和新加坡等五国地缘政治风险受外部事件影响较高,内部环境相对较为稳定。③东南亚国家地缘政治风险受外部事件影响远高于内部事件影响,其中外部事件主要来自美国、中国和澳大利亚等域外国家,域内国家占比较低,主要来自泰国和马来西亚。研究结果为掌握东南亚地缘政治风险情况与保障“一带一路”建设提供科学支撑。

With the continuous promotion of China's"going out"strategy and the Belt and Road Initiative,the demand for overseas geopolitical risk research is also increasing.Southeast Asia is a key region for the Belt and Road Initiative,with a complicated geographical environment and frequent geopolitical incidents.Based on geopolitical events,this paper proposes a geopolitical risk measurement method,taking Southeast Asia as an example to measure and analyze its spatio-temporal characteristics.Some conclusions can be drawn as follows:(1)Geopolitical risks in Southeast Asia are generally stable and controllable,but the spatio-temporal differences are large.It is relatively high in the Philippines and Myanmar,low in Laos,Singapore,Timor-Leste and Vietnam,and fluctuating in other countries.(2)The geopolitical risks of Indonesia,Cambodia,Thailand and Malaysia are more affected by internal events than those of the other five countries.Internal problems need to be solved urgently.Brunei,Laos,Timor-Leste,Vietnam and Singapore have high geopolitical risks affected by external events and relatively stable internal environments.(3)The geopolitical risks of South Asian countries are much more affected by external events than internal events,among which external events mainly come from countries outside the region such as the United States,China and Australia,while countries within the region account for a relatively low proportion,mainly from Thailand and Malaysia.The results of this study provide scientific support for grasping the geopolitical risks in Southeast Asia and ensuring the construction of the Belt and Road Initiative.