国际地缘大变局下的越欧班列规划与中越铁路对接

he Planning of the Vietnam-Europe Railway Express and the Connection of Cross-border Railways between China and Vietnamfrom the Geopolitics Perspective

越南经济发展高度依赖于外贸驱动。随着外贸总量的不断扩大,原有以海路为主的外贸线路不仅日益难以满足对外货运的需求,而且潜藏着安全上的风险,中美战略竞争的加剧和新冠疫情的爆发则进一步暴露了越南海运能力不足的发展瓶颈。在此背景下,越南提出了越欧班列规划,试图通过中越铁路对接或者通过中南半岛东西交通走廊经印度和中东西亚打通连接越南—欧洲的外贸新通道,改变过度依赖海路运输的不利局面,实现外贸路线的多元化和均衡化,消除潜在的安全风险。随着俄乌冲突、中东乱局和红海危机等一系列地缘变局的发生,经中南半岛和印度洋的方案最终搁浅,而通过中越铁路对接,在中欧班列的基础上建设越欧班列成为唯一可行的方案。中越两国铁路对接意味着中南半岛南北铁路交通线与中国西部陆海新通道实现完全联网,并进一步将中国、中南半岛、中亚、中东、南亚和欧洲连为一体,不仅将为中越关系发展注入新动力,更将为中国周边和中南半岛地区带来更大的稳定性,助力高质量“一带一路”建设,推动国际秩序向着更加公平合理的方向发展。

Vietnam s economic development is highly dependent on foreign trade.With the continuous expansion of the total amount of foreign trade,the original foreign trade routes mainly by sea are not only increasingly difficult to meet the needs of foreign freight,but also hidden security risks.The intensification of the strategic competition between China and the United States,along with the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic,further exposed the inadequacy of Vietnam s maritime transportation capacity.Against the above background,Vietnam proposed the Vietnam-Europe Railway Express plan,trying to open up a new foreign trade channel connecting Vietnam-China-Europe through the docking of China-Vietnam railway,change the unfavorable situation of over-reliance on sea transportation.This plan seeks to diversify and balance the trade routes,eliminate potential security risks and reduce reliance on foreign trade routes.The outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict,Vietnam s need for the opening of the Vietnam-Europe Railway Express is even more urgent.During the visits of Vietnamese Communist Party and state leaders,such as Nguyen Phu Trong and Pham Minh Chinh,to China,there was a high level of consensus reached between the two countries on issues including the railway connection and others between Vietnam and China,which not only injected new impetus into the development of China-Vietnam relations,but also brought greater stability to the surrounding regions of China and the Indo-China Peninsula and promoted the development of the international order in a more fair and reasonable direction.