中国南北经济分化的再考察——经济均分线移动与增速贡献分解的双重视角

Reexamination of the Economic Differentiation between North and South China:A Dual Perspective on the Movement of the Economic Dividing Line and the Decomposition of the Contribution to Growth Rate

文章从南北方经济差距视角探究中国区域发展不平衡的表现、特征与成因。文章提出“南北经济均分线”反映南北差距动态变化,发现均分线大致在南京—上海一带徘徊,但其位置在2000—2013年缓慢北移、2013年后则迅速南移,进一步分析发现当前南北方经济差距已超过东西部经济差距且尚无收敛趋势,已经成为中国区域发展不平衡的主要来源,因此必须深入探寻南北经济差距在2013年后出现趋势转折的原因。从区域-产业归因角度而言,文章创新性地提出增速贡献分解模型将南北经济总差距在产业和区域层面进行分解。发现南北经济差距在区域维度表现为“东北失速-失速现象扩散-区域经济分化”的发展规律,在产业维度表现为“工业失速为主-各行业普遍失速”的演化特征。为说明上述现象的产生原因,文章构造包含要素投入、技术进步、地域差距、产业结构和对外贸易五大驱动因素的经济增长框架,对南北方分别进行门槛分析,结果表明北方地区经济增长模式在2014年发生转折,转折点后北方产生投资增速下降、劳动力外流、人力资本弹性降低、地域不平衡性增大和产业结构不合理的问题,可能是南北差距的主要诱因。最后,文章针对上述复杂因素提出政策建议。

This paper delves into the current status,characteristics,and causes of the economic disparity between northern and southern regions in China,with a focus on key questions.Firstly,it examines whether the regional economic development gap between northern and southern China has replaced the historical east-west disparity,becoming the primary driver of eco⁃nomic imbalance.Secondly,it explores the possibility of subdividing the northern and southern regions into various subregions,investigating whether economic disparities differ across sub-regions,time periods,and industries.Lastly,the study assesses changes in production factors,technological levels,and industrial structures between the two regions around 2013 and explores whether these changes have led to a sudden widening of the economic disparity.The contributions of this paper lie in three main aspects.Firstly,utilizing centroid analysis,the paper constructs an ana⁃lytical framework allowing for a comparable assessment of economic gaps between the north and south,as well as between the east and west.It introduces the concept of the"North-South Economic Equilibrium Line"to measure the dynamic develop⁃ment trends of the North-South economic disparity,providing analytical tools and visualization schemes for studying eco⁃nomic development balance.Secondly,the paper proposes an innovative economic growth contribution decomposition model.This model eliminates the impact of regional economic fundamentals and industrial scale on conventional statistical indica⁃tors,decomposing the overall economic disparity between the north and south at the industry or regional level.This helps elu⁃cidate the extent to which economic growth disparities in different regions and industries contribute to the overall economic gap.Lastly,the study establishes an economic growth framework driven by five factors:input factors,regional disparities,in⁃dustrial structures,innovation,and foreign trade.Through threshold analysis,the study examines whether these factors under⁃went a turning point around 2013 in driving economic development in the north and south,providing further insights into the causes of economic disparity.Research findings indicate that the economic disparity between the north and south expanded rapidly after 2013,slow⁃ing down by 2018 without evidence of convergence.This expansion has surpassed the historical east-west gap,becoming the primary driver of imbalances in China′s regional economic development.The regional characteristics of this disparity are mainly attributed to the economic slowdown in the northern,especially the northeastern region,which can be divided into stages of spread from the northeast to other provinces and continuous economic slowdown in the northeast with differentiated development in other provinces.From an industrial perspective,the North-South economic disparity primarily stems from the rapid contraction of industry in the north,particularly in the northeast,which experienced a substantial slowdown in both the secondary and tertiary sectors after 2013.Factors influencing economic growth in the north include declining investment growth,labor outflows,and reduced contributions from human capital.The underlying reasons include a disproportionately high share of traditional industries,slow transformation,technological lags,and relatively weak international trade.This re⁃search advances academic understanding of the North-South economic disparity and provides valuable insights for policymak⁃ing in formulating scientifically grounded regional development strategies,promoting regional economic coordination,and achieving high-quality development.