全球价值链嵌入对农产品出口技术复杂度的影响

The Impact of Global Value Chain Embedding on the Technological Complexity of Agricultural Exports

选取2000—2019年74个国家或地区的面板数据,引入研发水平和人力资本作为中介变量,利用系统GMM两步法研究了农业全球价值链参与度对农产品出口技术复杂度的影响。研究发现,全球价值链前向和后向嵌入对农产品出口技术复杂度均产生了显著正向影响,研发水平和人力资本在全球价值链嵌入对农产品出口技术复杂度的影响中存在中介作用,经济发展水平和土地资源对农产品出口技术复杂度有正向影响,而汇率水平和外商直接投资则对其产生了负向影响。因此,我国农业部门应积极参与全球价值链分工,加强农业技术创新和人力资本提升,但也需谨慎应对汇率波动引发的不确定性,以及外商直接投资可能导致的“低端锁定”问题。

The article assessed based on the panel data of 74 countries and regions from 2000 to 2019,introduced research and development levels and human capital as mediating variables,and employed a two-step System Generalized Method of Moments(GMM)approach to study the impact of participation in the agricultural Global Value Chain(GVC)on the technological complexity of agricultural exports.It was found that both forward and backward GVC embedding had a significant positive impact on the technological complexity of agricultural exports.Research and developmentlevels and human capital played a mediating role in the influence of GVC embedding on the technological complexity of agricultural exports.Economic development levels and land resources had a positive impact on the technological complexity of agricultural exports,while exchange rates and foreign direct investment had a negative impact.Therefore,a country's agricultural sector should actively participate in the division of labor within the GVC,enhance agricultural technological innovation,and improve human capital.However,it should also be cautious in dealing with the uncertainty caused by exchange rate fluctuations and the potential issue of"low-end lock-in"resulting from foreign direct investment.