数字经济赋能我国主要粮食作物安全的水平评价

Evaluation of The Level of Digital Economy Empowering the Safety of China’s Major Food Crops

以2003—2022年四大主粮生产消费数据为实证基础进行分析,发现我国粮食安全水平持续上升,从结构安全的单一支撑已经转变为供给、经济、结构和生态安全共同支撑粮食安全的格局,但是四大主粮的安全水平依次为稻谷>玉米>小麦>大豆。此外,粮食作物安全与数字经济发展在区域和作物维度上均呈现出一定的关联性。为验证相关性,以数字经济发展水平为核心解释变量,以粮食安全和四大主粮为被解释变量,在4部门范围内确定控制变量,并以数字产业化为替换变量进行计量分析,结果显示数字经济能够提升我国粮食安全水平,但对四大主粮安全水平的赋能程度不同,大豆安全主要依靠有为政府保障,稻谷安全以有为政府主导带动有效市场发挥作用来保障,小麦和玉米的安全则以有效市场为主导保障。由于经济发展水平与粮食安全的负相关性,东北、中部和西部地区将更多地肩负粮食安全重任。通过重视粮食作物安全水平差异、优化粮食作物种植结构、制定差异化保障措施和加大数字技术在粮食生产全流程中的应用,我国粮食安全水平将进入质量并进轨道。

Based on the empirical analysis of the production and consumption data of the four major staple foods from 2003 to 2022,this study found that the level of food security in China has continued to rise,shifting from a single support for structural security to a pattern of supply,economy,structure,and ecological security jointly supporting food security.However,the security levels of the four major staple crops are in the order of rice>corn>wheat>soybeans.In addition,there is a certain correlation between food crop security and the development of the digital economy in both regional and crop dimensions.To verify the correlation,this paper takes the level of digital economy development as the core explanatory variable,and food security and the four major staple crops as the explained variables.Control variables are determined within the four sectors,and digital industrialization is used as a replacement variable for econometric analysis.The results show that digital economy can improve China’s food security level,but the empowerment degree of the four major staple crops security levels is different.Soybean security mainly relies on government guarantees,while rice security is guaranteed by government-led effective market that plays a role,and wheat and corn security is mainly guaranteed by the effective market.Due to the negative correlation between economic development level and food security,the northeast,central,and western regions will shoulder more responsibility for food security.By paying attention to the differences in food crop security levels,optimizing the planting structure of food crops,formulating differentiated safeguard measures,and increasing the application of digital technology in the entire food process,China’s food security level will enter a track of mutual progress of quality and quantity.