黄河水沙监测数据分析模型

Yellow River Water and Sand Monitoring Data Analysis Model

为研究黄河小浪底水库下游某水文站水沙通量的变化规律和“调水调沙”效果,以2016-2022年水位、水流量与含沙量的实际监测数据为依据,估算出年均径流量325亿立方米,年均排沙量2亿吨.分别使用双对数回归分析、M-K检验、小波分析、R/S分析对水沙通量的敏感性、突变性、周期性、趋势性进行了分析,得出结论:水位每增加1%,含沙量就增加37.63%,含沙量关于水位非常敏感;水沙通量均在2018年3月发生了突变;水沙通量均以18月为主周期振荡;水通量、沙通量在未来2年分别是增长趋势和下降趋势.使用傅里叶级数叠加线性函数预测未来2年的水沙通量,并建立了0-1规划模型对今后2年的监测方案进行了优化.通过比较“调水调沙”前后水沙通量、河底高程的变化,证明了“调水调沙”效果非常显著.

In order to study the changing law of water and sand fluxes and the effect of"water and sand regulation"at a hydrological station downstream of Xiaolangdi Reservoir on the Yellow River,based on data from 2016 to 2022,this paper estimates an average annual runoff of 32.5 billion cubic meters and an average annual sand discharge of 200 million tons.The sensitivity,abruptness,periodicity,and trend of water-sand fluxes were analyzed using double logarithmic regression analysis,M-K test,wavelet analysis,and R/S analysis,respectively,Drawing conclusions:for every 1%increase in water level,the sand content increased by 37.63%,and the sand content is very sensitive regarding water level;water and sand fluxes both changed abruptly in March 2018;water and sand fluxes both oscillated with an 18-month dominant cycle;water fluxes and sand fluxes are on an increasing trend and decreasing trend,respectively,over the next 2 years.A Fourier series superimposed linear function was used to predict water-sediment fluxes for the next 2 years,and a O-1 planning model was developed to optimize the monitoring program for the next 2 years.By comparing the changes in water and sand flux and river bottom elevation before and after the"water and sand transfer",it proves that the effect of"water and sand transfer"is very significant.