环境治理PPP地方政府隐性债务风险问题研究——基于贝叶斯网络模型

Research on the Hidden Debt Risk of Local Government in Environmental Governance PPP Based on Bayesian Network

地方政府债务风险是环境治理PPP项目财政资金风险的重要源头,识别其风险因素迫在眉睫。结合地方政府隐性债务的构成、特征及现状,厘清环境治理PPP地方政府债务风险产生的5个维度根源因素,构建贝叶斯网络模型,分析引发地方政府隐性债务风险的关键因素及关键致因链。研究表明,新增债务率、财政收支变动率、经济增长率、财政赤字率等为地方政府隐性债务风险形成的关键敏感因素;债务依存度—新增债务率—隐性债务风险为地方政府隐性债务风险增加的最大致因链;新增债务率为地方政府隐性债务风险产生的根源因素。从规范财政管理体制,遏制隐性债务增量方面提出源头防控环境治理PPP地方政府隐性债务风险的政策建议.

Local government debt risk is the main source of financial risk in environmental governance PPP.It is urgent to accurately identify the risk factors.Combined with the composition,characteristics and current situation of local government′s invisible debt,this paper analyzes the five dimensions of local government debt risk caused by PPP in environmental governance.Based on the construction of a Bayesian network model,this paper analyzes the key factors and the key cause chain of local government's implicit debt risk.The research shows that the new debt ratio,the change rate of fiscal revenue and expenditure,the economic growth rate and the fiscal deficit ratio are the key sensitive factors for the formation of the hidden debt risks of local governments.Debt dependence,new debt ratio,and implicit debt risk are the greatest cause chain policy poposals of the increase of implicit government debt risk.The new debt ratio is the most critical factor of the hidden debt risk.Finally,from the aspects of regulating the financial management system and curbing the increment of hidden debt,this paper puts forward for the prevention and control of local government′s implicit debt risk in environmental governance PPP.