牲畜饲养结构的时空分布特征及驱动因素——以宁夏为例

Spatiotemporal distribution characteristics and driving factors of livestock feeding structure:A case study in Ningxia

畜牧业是关系国计民生的重要产业,对于经济、环境以及食物安全都有重要意义。近年来,我国畜牧业总产出呈不断增长态势,但仍处于“大而不强,多而不优”的困境之中。本研究以牲畜饲养结构为对象,探究其时空分布特征和驱动因素,对畜牧业合理布局以及可持续发展有重要价值。首先分析了宁夏牲畜有效饲养量及饲养结构在1978-2020年间的时间分布特征,然后基于变异系数法和标准差椭圆方法测度了牲畜饲养结构空间分布特征,最后利用地理探测器模型分析了牲畜饲养结构空间分异性的核心驱动因素。结果表明:1)宁夏牲畜饲养结构在2002年前后发生了明显变化,牛、羊饲养比例明显上升,猪的饲养比例下降。2)牛、羊、猪饲养比例都呈空间分异性,但空间异质性的变化趋势各不相同。3)牛、羊、猪饲养比例均呈由南-北向分布向东北-西南向分布转变的趋势,牛、羊饲养比例较高区域均呈向四周扩张的趋势。4)牛饲养比例的核心驱动因素包括自然资源条件、社会经济条件以及政策因素,羊饲养比例的核心驱动因素包括社会经济条件和政策因素,而猪饲养比例只受到社会经济条件的影响。大部分核心驱动因素间的交互作用会增强牲畜饲养比例的空间分异性。

Animal husbandry is a crucial industry that significantly impacts the national economy and people’s livelihoods.Its importance extends to the economy,environment,and food safety.Despite a continuous increase in overall animal production in China in recent years,two problems remain:animals are“large but not strong”and“abundant but not excellent”.This study focuses on the livestock feeding structure,with aims to explore its temporal and spatial distribution characteristics as well as the driving factors.This research holds substantial value for guiding the rational distribution of resources and ensuring the sustainable development of animal husbandry in China.First,the temporal distribution characteristics of effective feeding amount and feeding structure of livestock in Ningxia in 1978-2020 were analyzed.Then,the spatial distribution characteristics of livestock feeding structure were assessed using coefficient of variation and standard deviation ellipse methods.Finally,the core driving factors influencing the spatial differentiation of livestock feeding structure were identified by applying the GeoDetector model.The main findings were as follows:1)The livestock feeding structure in Ningxia significantly changed around 2002 with a noticeable increase in the proportion of cattle and sheep and a decrease in the proportion of pigs.2)The proportion of cattle,sheep,and pigs showed spatial differentiation,but each exhibited a distinct trend of spatial heterogeneity.3)The proportions of cattle,sheep,and pigs displayed a shift from south-north distribution to northeast-southwest distribution.The regions with high proportions of cattle and sheep showed trend of expansion.4)The core driving factors influencing the proportion of cattle were natural resource conditions and socio-economic conditions and policies.The core driving factors influencing the proportion of sheep were socio-economic conditions and policies.However,the proportion of pigs was only affected by socio-economic conditions.Interactions among most of these core driving factors enhanced the spatial differentiation of livestock feeding structure.