Spatial-temporal Distribution and Influencing Factors of Urban Carbon Emissions under the Background of Carbon Emission Reduction:A Case Study of Guangxi Autonomous Region

双碳背景下城市碳排放时空分布特征及影响因素分析——以广西为例

Based on the panel data of Guangxi from 2005 to 2017,the spatiotemporal characteristics and determinants of urban carbon emissions in Guangxi were analyzed using the extended STIRPAT model and the Geographically and Temporally Weighted Regression(GTWR)model.The main findings of our research can be summarized as follows.While the total carbon emissions of cities in Guangxi consistently increased from 2005 to 2014,the growth trend slowed after 2014,leading to a stabilization in the total emissions.In addition,there are significant differences in the total carbon emissions among the cities.The central and northeastern regions have higher emissions,while the southwestern region has lower emissions.Finally,there are variations in the degrees and directions of the impacts that factors have on carbon emissions among the different time periods and cities.Urban land use is a key factor driving carbon emissions,and it has a negative impact on most cities in Guangxi.Meanwhile,factors such as industrial structure,population urbanization,population concentration,and economic growth have significant positive effects on carbon emissions in Guangxi.The influence of urban roads on carbon emissions is generally positive,while the degree of openness to the outside world and environmental regulations has relatively weaker impacts on emissions.In summary,in order to promote the low-carbon transition of Guangxi and achieve high-quality development,the cities in Guangxi should implement differentiated urban carbon reduction strategies that are focused on optimizing urban land use and industrial structure.

基于广西各市2005-2017年的面板数据,运用扩展的STIRPAT模型和时空地理加权回归(GTWR)模型对广西城市碳排放的时空特征及影响因素进行分析。本研究的主要发现可归纳如下。首先,2005-2014年广西城市碳排放总量持续上升。但2014年后增长趋势放缓,导致排放总量趋于平稳。此外,各城市之间的碳排放总量存在显著差异。中部和东北地区排放量较高,西南地区排放量较低。最后,各因素对碳排放的影响程度和方向在不同时间和不同城市存在差异。其中,城市土地利用是驱动碳排放的关键因素,对广西大部分城市产生负向影响。同时,产业结构、人口城镇化、人口集聚、经济增长等因素对广西碳排放具有显著的正向影响。城市道路对碳排放的影响总体上是正向的,而对外开放程度和环境规制对排放的影响相对较弱。综上所述,为促进广西低碳转型,实现高质量发展,广西各城市应实施以优化城市土地利用和产业结构为重点的差异化城市碳减排策略。