海南岛植胶区割胶劳动力年龄结构及空间分布特征

Age Structure and Spatial Distribution Pattern of Rubber Tapping Labor Force in Hainan Island

割胶作为当前获取天然橡胶这一重要工业原料的唯一手段,其劳动力供应的稳定性对天然橡胶产业的可持续发展至关重要。目前,割胶劳动力短缺和老龄化现象已引起高度关注,但相关研究缺乏详细空间信息的转换估算,不利于宏观调控。文章基于2020年海南岛天然橡胶林分布图、Dynamic World土地利用分类产品和WorldPop人口分布数据集,分析了海南岛植胶区潜在割胶劳动力的空间分布和年龄结构特征,并进行转换估算和缺乏程度分级,利用空间统计分析揭示割胶劳动力亏缺的空间格局。结果表明:1)海南植胶区潜在割胶劳动力总数为156.74万人,空间分布呈现“北高南低”的态势,且45~59岁年龄占比达34%,老龄化趋势明显。2)劳动力缺乏程度在空间上存在显著差异,其中一级缺乏区域主要集中在中西部与中东部市县的交界区域,呈带状分布;而二、三级缺乏广泛分布于中西部、中部及部分中东部市县交界区,中部尤为严重,呈连片状分布。3)儋州市、白沙县和琼中县一级缺乏面积位居前三,累计面积达到5.05×10~4 hm2;白沙县、琼中县、澄迈县和乐东县在二、三级缺乏面积上同样突出,总面积达到2.33×10~4 hm2。

Currently,tapping is the only method of obtaining natural rubber,an essential industrial raw material.The stability of the labor force supply for tapping is crucial for the sustainable development of the natural rubber industry.As China's second-largest rubber planting area,Hainan Island had a planting area of 585,800 hectares in 2020,accounting for 45%of the country's total,with over 2 million workers.Labor force shortages and the aging phenomenon in tapping have become increasingly severe and have attracted significant attention.However,the related research lacks detailed spatial information for conversion estimation,which hinders macroeconomic regulation.This study is based on the 2020 Hainan Island natural rubber distribution map,Dynamic World land use classification products,and the WorldPop population distribution dataset.It employs multiple technical operations such as temporal and spatial filtering,removal of small patches,buffer parameter settings,and masking to obtain the 2020 potential tapping labor density map for Hainan's rubber planting areas.Spatial statistical methods are used to analyze the spatial distribution and age structure characteristics of potential tapping labor force in Hainan's rubber planting areas as well as the spatial distribution of labor force shortage degrees after conversion to actual tapping labor force,including the labor force shortage levels and areas for each city and county,revealing the spatial pattern.The results reveal the following:1)The total number of potential tapping laborers in Hainan's rubber planting areas is 1.5674 million,with a spatial distribution pattern of high in the north and low in the south.The proportion of the population aged 45~59 years is 34%,indicating a significant aging trend.2)There are significant spatial differences in the degree of labor shortage.The primary shortage areas are mainly concentrated in the junction areas of the central-western and central-eastern counties,with a belt-like distribution.In contrast,the secondary and tertiary shortage areas are widely distributed in the central-western,central,and some central-eastern county junctions,with shortage in the central area being particularly severe,showing a contiguous distribution.3)The primary shortage areas in Danzhou City,Baisha County,and Qiongzhong County rank in the top three,with a cumulative area of 50,500 hectares.Baisha,Qiongzhong,Chengmai,and Ledong Counties are also prominent in the secondary and tertiary shortage areas,covering a total area of 23,300 hectares.In total,the area of labor shortage regions in Hainan Island is 141,700 hectares,necessitating a future focus.To address the labor force shortage issue in tapping,it is recommended to strengthen infrastructure construction in the rubber plantations within the shortage areas and actively promote new tapping methods(e.g.,low-frequency tapping)or tools(e.g.,electric tapping knives)to reduce the labor intensity of tapping and increase the number of trees tapped per capita.This will provide favorable support for the sustainable and healthy development of Hainan's natural rubber industry.By revealing the spatial distribution characteristics and degree of tapping labor shortage,this study aims to provide robust decision-making support for the Hainan provincial government in addressing employment issues of tapping labor,optimizing human resource management strategies,and promoting the sustainable development of the natural rubber industry.