“以地谋发展”模式的后果:二元土地体制下地方政府土地出让过度与区域经济扭曲

Consequences of the “Land for Development” Model: Excessive Land Transfer by Local Governments and Regional Economic Distortions under the Dualistic Land System

土地出让市场的降温并不意味着地方政府土地出让对区域经济扭曲的消失。从二元土地体制视角构建了地方政府土地出让决策模型,解释了地方政府通过降低农民土地补偿比例及差异化供地扭曲了区域经济发展。进而,基于地级市面板数据研究了地方政府土地出让过度对区域经济扭曲的影响及其作用机理。研究发现,地方政府土地出让过度显著扭曲了区域经济发展。机制分析发现,地方政府通过提高土地出让收入依赖风险、扭曲土地出让价格以及抑制区域创新引致区域经济的失衡。异质性分析表明,地方政府采取“剪刀差”和“招拍挂”的土地出让方式加剧了土地出让过度对区域经济的扭曲程度。此外,地方政府对资本、资源和技术密集型产业出让土地越多,对区域经济的扭曲效果越显著。进一步分析发现,房地产管控政策在地方政府土地出让过度与区域经济扭曲之间发挥正向调节作用,有助于减轻地方政府土地出让过度对区域经济的扭曲影响。同时,地方政府通过延长新增债券的平均期限、降低再融资债券占比方式缓解因土地出让过度造成的区域经济扭曲。研究结论为推进区域土地市场化改革,促进区域经济发展模式转变提供了有力的证据支持。

The cooling of the land transfer market does not mean that the distortion of regional economy by local government land transfer has disappeared.From the perspective of“dualistic”land system,the article constructs a decision model of local government land transfer,which explains that local government distorts regional economic development by lowering the compensation ratio of farmers’land and differentiating land supply.Then,based on the panel data of prefectural-level cities,the impact of excessive local government land transfer on regional economic distortion and its mechanism are investigated.It is found that excessive local government land transfer significantly distorts regional economic development.Mechanism analysis reveals that local governments cause regional economic imbalances by increasing revenue dependence risk of land transfer,distorting land transfer prices,and inhibiting regional innovation.Heterogeneity analysis shows that local governments’adoption of the“price scissors”and“auction and listing”methods of land transfer exacerbates the distortion of excessive land transfer on regional economies.In addition,the more the local government transfers land to capital,resource and technological intensive industries,the more significant the distortion effect on the regional economy.Further analysis reveals that real estate control policies play a positive moderating role between local governments’excessive land transfer and regional economic distortion,helping to mitigate the distorting effects of local governments’excessive land transfer on the regional economy.Meanwhile,local governments mitigate the regional economic distortion caused by excessive land transfer by extending the average maturity of new bonds and reducing the proportion of refinanced bonds.The conclusions provide strong evidence to support the promotion of regional land marketization reform and the transformation of regional economic development model.