多层次人为因素耦合关联挖掘量化方法

A quantitative method for coupling association mining of multi-level human factors

提出了一种多层次人为因素耦合关联挖掘量化方法,以民航领域不安全事件为例进行验证,旨在弥补人为因素分析过程中缺少层次间耦合关联定量分析的不足。首先,融合人的因素分析与分类系统(Human Factors Analysis and Classification System,HFACS)模型和飞行专家访谈对不安全事件多层次耦合原因进行细化;然后,基于灰色关联度分析(Grey Relation Analysis,GRA)理论量化事件深层影响因素与多类不安全行为之间的关联;最后,挖掘导致多类不安全行为的重要影响因素。为验证模型的适用性与解释性,以民航不安全事件为例,结果表明:个人准备及机组资源管理、操作者状态、监督不充分对技能差错、习惯性违规、偶然性违规产生重大影响,以上因素主要通过直接影响整体差错和违规,形成不安全行为,致使民航不安全事件发生;未纠正已有问题、资源管理、监督违规对知觉差错产生重要影响,组织过程、环境因素、监督不充分对决策差错产生关键影响,多数现有措施并未针对知觉差错和决策差错的防控。研究探索了民航不安全事件致因机理,可为制定更加针对性的风险防控措施提供客观定量的理论参考。

This study proposes a quantitative method for coupling association mining of multi-level human factors,validated through an analysis of unsafe events in civil aviation.The aim is to address the deficiency in quantitative analysis of inter-level associations in the context of human factors analysis.First,the causes of unsafe events were classified and expanded upon using the Human Factors Analysis and Classification System(HFACS)and interviews with flight specialists.Next,the relationships between the underlying influencing factors of these causes and various types of unsafe behaviors were quantified using Grey Relation Analysis(GRA).Finally,significant influencing factors contributing to the different types of unsafe events were identified based on the calculation results.To verify the applicability and interpretability of the model,civil aviation unsafe events in a specific region were analyzed as a case study.The research findings revealed that the trends influencing unsafe acts,errors,and violations are consistent.Additionally,the trends in the gray correlations between the ten underlying influences and unsafe acts,overall errors,and skill-based errors generally align,while the trends in gray correlations between the ten underlying influences and perceptual and decision errors show significant variation.Furthermore,the trends in gray correlations between the ten underlying influences and unsafe acts,overall violations,routine violations,and exceptional violations are largely consistent.Exploring the causal mechanisms behind unsafe events in civil aviation reveals that factors such as personal preparation,Crew Resource Management(CRM),operator status,inadequate supervision,and organizational environment significantly influence skill-based errors.These skill-based errors,in turn,affect overall errors and unsafe acts,ultimately leading to the occurrence of unsafe events in civil aviation.Additionally,organizational processes,environmental factors,failure to address known issues,resource management,and supervisory irregularities have a substantial impact on decision-making and perception errors.While these factors may not align with the primary influences on overall errors and unsafe acts,they remain important contributors to unsafe acts and overall errors that should not be overlooked.Individual preparation,CRM,operator status,and inadequate supervision significantly influence routine violations,which subsequently affect overall violations and lead to unsafe acts,ultimately resulting in civil aviation unsafe events.This analysis offers objective and quantitative theoretical insights that can assist in the development of more targeted risk prevention and control measures.