美国中央情报局在巴以和平进程中的外交活动探析——兼论在新的大国竞争时代美国的“情报外交”

An Exploration of the CIA's Diplomatic Activities in the Israeli-Palestinian Peace Process-Also An Exploration of America's“Intelligence Diplomacy”in the Era of New Major Power Competition

本文主要探析美国中央情报局在巴以和平进程中的外交活动,并以此为基础,考察美国在新的大国竞争时代的“情报外交”理念。1994年至2002年期间,中情局在巴以和平进程中的外交活动主要包括:在《奥斯陆协议》签订后的最初两年里,向巴自治政府提供安全援助,试图以此促进巴以安全合作;在1996年初巴以冲突重新爆发后,斡旋、调解巴以冲突,试图以此挽救和平进程。中情局之所以在巴以和平进程中从事外交活动,主要原因在于,巴以和平进程外交活动的特定需求与中情局所具有的满足此类需求的特质和能力高度切合,由此推断,情报机构参与外交活动的更具普遍适用性的逻辑则是,特定外交需求与情报机构特质和能力的切合。此逻辑对于理解、探究美国在新的大国竞争时代的“情报外交”具有一定参照作用:一方面,美国的大国竞争战略仍以外交为重要战略工具,但美国在某些领域的外交活动,如“拒止”和“去冲突、去风险”,有其特定需求;另一方面,美国情报界的特质和能力使其具备在新的大国竞争时代发挥外交作用的资质,美国大国竞争战略的外交需求与美国情报界外交资质的结合是催生“情报外交”的战略逻辑。

This article primarily explores the diplomatic activities of the Central Intelligence Agency(CIA)in the Israeli-Palestinian peace process and uses this as a basis to examine the“intelligence diplomacy”concept of the United States during the era of new major power competition.From 1994 to 2002,the CIA's diplomatic activities in the Israeli-Palestinian peace process mainly included providing security assistance to the Palestinian Authority in an attempt to promote Israeli-Palestinian security cooperation in the first two years after the signing of the Oslo Accords,and mediating and reconciling the conflict in an attempt to save the peace process in early 1996 after the resumption of Israeli-Palestinian conflict.The main reason why the CIA engaged in diplomatic activities in the Israeli-Palestinian peace process is that the specific demands of the peace process diplomacy highly coincided with the traits and capabilities of the CIA that can meet such demands.From this,it is inferred that the more universally applicable logic for intelligence agencies to participate in diplomatic activities is the fit between specific diplomatic needs and the traits and capabilities of intelligence agencies.This logic has certain enlightening significance for understanding and exploring“intelligence diplomacy”of the United States in the era of new major power competition.On the one hand,the United States'strategy for major power competition still regards diplomacy as an important strategic tool,but the United States has specific needs in some areas of diplomacy,such as“denial”and“deconfliction,de-risking.”On the other hand,the traits and capabilities of the U.S.intelligence community enable it to play a diplomatic role in the era of new major power competition,and the combination of the United States'strategic diplomatic needs and the diplomatic qualifications of the U.S.intelligence community is the strategic logic that gives rise to“intelligence diplomacy.”