读书何以改变命运?——基于精英教育长期回报的考察

How Can Reading Change Fate?An Investigation Based on the Long Term Returns of Elite Education

本文利用2018年中国家庭收入调查数据(CHIP),结合对应省份年份文理科的高考一本分数线,采用断点回归设计方法解决内生性问题,以估计重点大学长期回报。研究发现,就读重点大学显著提高了个人长期劳动力市场收入,且具有代际转移作用;个体继续深造概率提升与子女教育支出增加分别为上述影响提供解释。这种显著的正面作用对于农村和西部个体更为明显,也会受到扩招等高校建设政策影响。本文论证了重点大学对个体的长期效应,为我国继续推进教育公平提供经验启示,同时论证了高水平大学建设工程的必要性。

With the 2018 China Household Income Survey data and a regression discontinuity design method,attending a key university is found to significantly increase an individual's long-term labor market income,and it also has an intergenerational transfer effect on his children.The increase in the probability of an individual's pursuit of further education and in his expenditure for the children's education provides explanations for these effects respectively.This significant positive effect is more pronounced for individuals from rural and western regions,and is also affected by university construction policies,e.g.,enrolment expansion policies.