中国代际流动形成机制的空间异质性——基于地理加权回归模型的实证研究

The Spatial Heterogeneity of the Mechanisms Shaping Intergenerational Mobility in China:An Empirical Study Based on A Geographically Weighted Regression Model

本文以中国综合社会调查(CGSS)多年度数据中的73个样本城市为例,分析中国代际流动形成机制的空间异质性。通过构建代际地位关联度来表示代际流动水平,利用地理加权回归模型(GWR)探索各社会结构因素在不同地区对代际流动的影响差异,发现我国代际流动形成机制具有明显的空间异质性。具体而言:第一,工业化水平、收入差距、社会福利水平是影响代际流动的主要因素,但在不同城市中,上述因素的影响程度,甚至影响方向会发生变化;第二,决定不同地区代际流动水平的主导因素各不相同,必须因地制宜,采取针对性的空间治理举措。

This paper analyzes the spatial heterogeneity in the mechanisms shaping intergenerational mobility in China using data from 73 sample cities based on the Chinese General Social Survey(2010-2017).By constructing an indicator to represent intergenerational status correlation to measure mobility levels and employing a geographically weighted regression(GWR)model,it explores how different social structural factors influence intergenerational mobility across regions.The findings indicate that mechanisms shaping intergenerational mobility in China display significant spatial heterogeneity.Specifically,(1)industrialization level,social inequality,and social welfare are major factors influencing intergenerational mobility;however,their influence varies in magnitude and even direction across different cities;(2)the dominant factors determining levels of intergenerational mobility differ from region to region,necessitating localized and targeted spatial governance measures.