基于足迹家族的银川市产业可持续发展评价

Evaluation of industrial sustainable development of Yinchuan City based on footprint family

为积极响应黄河流域生态保护和高质量发展先行区建设,探究银川市各产业资源开发力度及可持续发展状况,通过足迹家族计算方法量化2011—2020年银川市各产业足迹,并利用资源环境压力指数法及Tapio脱钩模型对银川市产业可持续发展状况进行评价,最后采用对数平均迪氏指数法(LMDI)对各产业驱动机制进行分析。结果表明:1)近10年银川市水足迹呈现“V”型变化趋势,2016年达到最低值1.03×106 hm^(2),水足迹主要以农业为主,占70%以上;银川市碳足迹与生态足迹呈现逐步上升趋势,工业在碳足迹与生态足迹中均占主导地位,分别占95%和85%左右。2)水资源压力指数整体呈现“V”型变化趋势,最大值与最小值相差约3倍;碳排放压力指数呈现倒“L”型变化趋势,2019年压力指数达到最大值220;生态压力指数呈现“波浪”型上升趋势,2020年压力指数接近220,表明资源环境压力在逐步上升。3)农业可持续发展评价整体表现良好,工业整体表现为较差,生活及生态产业呈现良好至差的态势。4)各产业环境承载力和足迹生产效益因素对产业发展具有促进作用,水资源消耗量、碳排放量和环境污染程度分别对农业、工业、生活及生态产业起主要抑制作用。研究表明,银川市农业足迹变化幅度不大且经济发展迅速,可持续发展趋势良好;工业资源环境压力大幅上升且经济上升缓慢,不利于可持续发展;生活及生态产业资源环境压力上升速率大于经济发展速率,可持续发展能力逐步下降。

In order to actively respond to the construction of ecological protection and high-quality developmen pilot area in the Yellow River Basin and explore the development intensity and sustainable development status of various industrial resources in Yinchuan,the footprint of various industries in Yinchuan from 2011 to 2020 were quantified by using footprint family calculation method.The sustainable development status of industries in Yinchuan was evaluated by using the resource and environmental pressure index method and the Tapio decoupling model.Finally,the driving mechanism of each industry was analyzed by using the logarithmic mean Divisia index(LMDI) method.The results showed:1) The water footprint of Yinchuan City showed a"V"-shaped change trend in the 10 years,and the lowest value reached 1.03×106 hm^(2) in 2016.The water footprint of Yinchuan City was mainly agricultural,accounting for more than 70%.The carbon footprint and ecological footprint showed a gradual upward trend,and the industrial carbon footprint and ecological footprint were dominant,accounting for about 95%and85%,respectively.2) The overall water resource pressure index showed a"V"-shaped change trend,with a difference of about 3 times between the maximum and minimum values.The carbon emission pressure index showed an inverted"L"-shaped change trend,and the pressure index reached the maximum value of 220 in 2019while the ecological pressure index showed a"wave"-shaped upward trend.The pressure index was close to 220 in2020,indicating that the pressure of resources and environment was gradually rising.3) The overall performance of agricultural sustainable development evaluation was"good",the overall performance of industry was"poor",and the living and ecological industries showed a"good-poor"trend.4) The factors of environmental carrying capacity and footprint production efficiency of each industry promoted industrial development,while water resources consumption,carbon emission,and environmental pollution degree mainly inhibited the agricultury,industry,and living and ecological industry,respectively.The research shows that the agricultural footprint of Yinchuan City has a small change range and rapid economic development,with a good trend toward sustainable development.The pressure on industrial resources and environment is rising sharply and the economy is rising slowly,which is no conducive to sustainable development.The rising rate of resources and environment pressure on living and ecological industry is greater than the rate of economic development,and the ability of sustainable development is gradually declining.