财政透明度对预决算支出偏离的影响研究——基于268个地级市财政预决算数据的分析

Impact of Fiscal Transparency and Deviation of Budget and Final Accounting Expenditure by Fiscal Budget and Final Data from 268 Prefecture-level Cities

利用2013-2021年中国市级层面公共预算的预算和决算数据,从预算支出视角分析财政透明度对预决算支出偏离的影响。研究发现,地方政府财政透明度的提升对预决算支出偏离有显著的抑制作用,通过稳健性检验,证明结论成立,且财政透明度对预决算支出偏离存在地区异质性,低财政透明度地区、经济发达地区、低财政自给能力地区和低政府支出规模地区的抑制作用更显著;机制检验结果表明,地方政府财政透明度的提升可以通过提高政府财政自给能力、控制政府支出规模两个途径抑制预决算支出偏离。

Using the budget and final accounting data from public budget at the municipal level in China from 2013 to 2021,it analyzed the impact of fiscal transparency on deviations in budgeted and actual expenditures in this paper from the perspective of budget expenditures.It found that the improvement of local government fiscal transparency has a significant inhibitory effect on the deviation of budget and final expenditures.Through robustness testing,the conclusion was supported,and fiscal transparency has regional heterogeneity on the deviation of budget and final expenditures.The inhibitory effect is more significant in areas with low fiscal transparency,developed economies,low fiscal self-sufficiency,and low government expenditure scale.The results of mechanism testing indicated that the improvement of local government fiscal transparency can suppress the deviation of budget and final expenditure by improving government fiscal self-sufficiency and controlling government expenditure scale.