中国茶叶出口上合组织国家之贸易效率及潜力

Study on the trade efficiency and potential of China’s tea exports to SCO countries

本文在阐述中国茶叶出口上合组织国家现状的基础上,利用随机前沿分析法探析中国茶叶出口上合组织国家贸易效率及其影响因素,并进一步探究其贸易潜力和拓展空间。结果表明:2007-2021年中国茶叶出口上合组织国家贸易效率有所提升,但各国之间存在显著差异,其中贸易效率最高的是俄罗斯,其他成员国均处于0.5以下,贸易潜力有待进一步挖掘;中国茶叶产量、上合组织国家的人均GDP和人口规模与中国茶叶出口呈现正相关,中国的人口规模、共同边界与中国茶叶出口显著负相关;共同签订自由贸易协定、加入上海合作组织、货币自由度以及孔子学院的设立有效促进了贸易效率的提升,而金融自由度起到阻碍作用,中欧班列开通的作用不显著。最后提出应积极加快上合组织建设,推动双边茶叶贸易便利化程度,加强设施联通,深入宣传中国茶文化,促进茶产业转型升级等建议。

Based on the current situation of China's tea exports to SCO countries,this paper uses stochastic frontier analysis to analyze the trade efficiency of China's tea exports to SCO countries and its influencing factors,and further explores its trade potential and expansion space.The results show that:the trade efficiency of China's tea exports to SCO countries has been improved from 2007 to 2021,but there are significant differences between countries,in which the highest trade efficiency is Russia,and other member countries are all below 0.5,and the trade potential needs to be further explored;China's tea production,the per capita GDP and population size of SCO countries are positively correlated with China's tea exports,and China's population size,common border and China's tea exports are significantly negatively correlated;the joint signing of free trade agreements,accession to the Shanghai Cooperation Organization,monetary freedom and the establishment of Confucius Institutes effectively promote the enhancement of trade efficiency,while financial freedom plays a hindering role,and the opening of China-Europe liner train does not play a significant role.Finally,it is suggested that the construction of SCO should be accelerated actively,the degree of facilitation of bilateral tea trade should be promoted,facility connectivity should be strengthened,Chinese tea culture should be publicized in depth,and the transformation and upgrading of the tea industry should be promoted.