尖锐湿疣患者光动力学治疗后短期复发风险预测模型的构建与验证

Construction and nursing study of short-term recurrence risk prediction model after photodynamic treatment in patients with condyloma acuminatum

目的构建尖锐湿疣患者光动力学治疗后短期复发的风险预测模型,并验证其效果。方法选择2022年1月-2024年2月我科行光动力学治疗的尖锐湿疣患者153例作为调查对象,通过电子病历系统完成一般资料收集,以Logistic回归分析法确定尖锐湿疣患者光动力学治疗后短期复发的危险因素,构建风险预测模型并验证,提出相应的护理策略。结果随访6个月,153例尖锐湿疣患者中41例(26.79%)出现复发,列为复发组;112例(73.21%)患者治愈,列为治愈组;Logistic回归分析结果显示,性伴侣数量、是否使用安全套、皮损数目、血清白介素-12(IL-12)、白介素-2(IL-2)、转化生长因子-β1(TGF-β1)水平均为尖锐湿疣患者光动力学治疗后短期复发的独立危险因素(P<0.05)。风险预测模型Hosmer-Lemeshow拟合优度结果显示,χ^(2)=4.874,P=0.713,C-index为0.741,ROC曲线下面积为0.776(95%CI:0.602~0.892),灵敏度为0.828,特异度为0.848,临界值为0.329,预测准确率为80.64%。结论尖锐湿疣患者光动力学治疗后短期复发风险较高,构建的风险预测模型具有较好的拟合优度和区分能力,准确率较高,可为患者短期复发的早期筛查和识别提供依据。

Objective Construct a risk prediction model for short-term recurrence after photodynamic treatment in patients with condyloma acuminatum and propose effective nursing strategies.Methods A total of 153 patients from January 2022 to February 2024,The general data collection was completed through the electronic medical record system,and the risk factors of short-term recurrence after photodynamic treatment of the wet wart patients were identified by Logistic regression analysis,and the risk prediction model was constructed,and the corresponding nursing strategies were proposed.Results Through 6 months of follow-up,the results showed that 41 out of 153 patients with condyloma acuminatum had recurrence phenomenon,and the recurrence rate was 26.79%;Logistic The analysis results showed that the number of sexual partners,condom use,number of skin lesions,IL-12,IL-2,and TGF-β1 were all independent risk factors for short-term recurrence after photodynamic treatment in patients with condyloma acuminatum(P<0.05).The Hosmer-Lemeshow chi-square test of the risk prediction model constructed in this study hasχ^(2)=4.874,P=0.713,C-index of 0.741,AUC of 0.776(95%CI:0.602~0.892),sensitivity of 0.828,specificity of 0.848,and cut-off probability of 0.329,and prediction accuracy of 80.64%in the validation set samples.Conclusion The short-term recurrence risk prediction model after photodynamic treatment of condyloma patients constructed in this study has high practicability and accuracy,and can provide reliable basis for early screening and identification of short-term recurrence of patients.