改革开放40年中国经济增长与碳排放影响因素分析

Analysis of factors affecting China’s economic growth and carbon emissions during the 40 years of reform and opening

改革开放40年来中国经济保持高速增长,2005年中国成为全球碳排放第一大国。运用EKC和STIRPAT模型对1978年至2018年中国人均GDP和人均碳排放的关系以及影响中国碳排放的因素进行分析。结果表明:中国人均GDP和人均碳排放的关系,符合环境库兹涅茨曲线倒U型的规律和趋势;中国人均GDP和人均碳排放尚处在递增阶段;经济增长是对中国碳排放影响最大的因素,其后依次是化石燃料使用、城镇人口、可替代能源与核使用、人口总数、服务业增加值、进出口总额。通过对中国碳排放影响因素的分析,希望能为中国实现绿色、低碳和可持续发展提供理论基础。

In the past 40 years of reform and opening up,China’s economy has maintained rapid growth.In 2005,China became the world’s largest carbon emitter.The EKC and STIRPAT models were used to analyze the relationship between China’s per capita GDP and per capita carbon emissions from 1978 to 2018 and the factors affecting China’s carbon emissions.The results show that the relationship between per capita GDP and per capita carbon emissions in China is consistent with the law and trend of the inverted U-shaped environmental Kuznets curve;China’s per capita GDP and per capita carbon emissions are still in an increasing stage;economic growth is the most influential to China’s carbon emissions.The factors are followed by fossil fuel use,urban population,alternative energy and nuclear use,total population,value added in services,and total imports and exports.Through the analysis of the factors affecting China’s carbon emissions,we hope to provide a theoretical basis for China to achieve green,low carbon and sustainable development.