人民银行资产负债表管理对货币政策贯彻执行效果的影响

The Influence of the Balance Sheet Management of the People's Bank on the Implementation of Monetary Policy

人民银行资产负债表是央行履职绩效的晴雨表,加强人民银行资产负债表管理对于央行宏观货币政策调控具有重要的理论价值和现实意义。本文以2008—2016年人民银行月度资产负债表为研究对象,首先对其主要科目历年变化趋势进行了分析;通过回归分析及格兰杰因果关系检验,得出了人民银行资产负债表中多个主要科目对货币政策工具和指标都有显著影响,但整体发展仍不均衡的结论;最后,本文从调整经济发展结构、加强科学主动管理和提高政策工具协调度等方面,提出了进一步完善货币政策传导机制的政策建议。

The Balance Sheet of the People's Bank is the barometer of the central bank's performance of duties.Strengthening the balance sheet management of the People's Bank of China has important theoretical value and practical significance for the central bank's macroeconomic policy control.In this paper,the monthly balance sheet of the People' s Bank of China(2008-2016) is taken as the research object,and the changes of its main subjects over the years are analyzed;Through the Regression Analysis and Granger Test of Causality,it is concluded that many main subjects in the balance sheet of the People's Bank have significant influence on the monetary policy instruments and indicators,but the overall development is still uneven;Finally,this paper puts forward some policy suggestions on how to improve the transmission mechanism of monetary policy from the aspects of adjusting the economic development structure,strengthening the scientific initiative management and improving the coordination degree of the policy tools.