中国第三产业内部结构升级趋势分析

An Analysis on Upgrading Trends of Tertiary Industry's Internal Structure in China

本文按第三产业四个层次的划分 ,对 2 0世纪 90年代以来中国第三产业内部结构的演变过程做纵向分析和横向分析 ,通过建立回归分析模型 ,揭示了第三产业比重与第三产业第一层次比重负相关、与第二层次比重正相关的规律性。文章认为 ,第三产业第一层次比重下降、第二层次比重上升 ,体现了第三产业内部结构升级的方向 ,并根据第三产业内部结构升级趋势分析 ,对物流业、生产服务业、生活服务业和非营利服务业的发展 ,提出了一些政策建议。

This article does some research on the evolvement process of 4 sections in China's tertiary industry since 1990's, and deals with the data processing of both cross-section and time series. Through 4 regression models, the research comes to some significant conclusions. With the enlargement of the proportion of tertiary industry in GDP, the first section proportion in tertiary industry will decrease, and the second section proportion will increase. These characteristics embody the upgrading direction of the tertiary Industry. The author tries to make some suggestions in the end.