中国粮食进口贸易格局的演变及发展趋势——基于居民粮食消费结构的分析

The Evolution and Development Trend of China’Grain Import Trade Pattern——Analysis Based on the Residents’ Grain Consumption Structure

改革开放以来,随着中国工业化、城镇化进程的加快以及人口数目的变化,中国粮食需求总量发生变化,同时,国内居民的食物消费结构也发生相应变化。在当今世界贸易格局发生转变的背景下,国内需求与国际贸易的变化必然会对中国的粮食进口产生一定影响。利用2005~2016年数据,基于中国居民消费结构发生变化的背景,分析中国粮食的进口贸易情况。通过对比发现,作为主粮主要来源的稻谷和小麦的人均消费量呈下降趋势,而作为饲料粮主要来源的玉米和大豆的人均消费量却呈现上升趋势;在居民的食物消费结构中,粮食所占份额下降,而肉蛋奶所占比重上升;中国粮食进口规模扩大,净进口呈现常态化且保持上升趋势;在中国进口的粮食品种中,大豆占据主要份额,且保持上升趋势。基于得到的结论,提出相应政策建议。

Since the reform and opening,with the acceleration of industrialization and urbanization and the change of population,our total grain demand has changed,and the food consumption structure of domestic residents has also changed accordingly.Under the transformation of world trade,the change of domestic demand and international trade will inevitably affect China’grain import.By using the date from 2005 to 2016,based on the changes in the residents’consumption structure,this paper analyzes the grain import trade in China.By contrast,we can find that the per capita consumption of rice and wheat as the main grain decline in China,while the per capita consumption of corn and soybean as feed grain appear to be increasing.In the food consumption structure of residents,the proportion of grain declines,while the proportion of meat,eggs and milk increase.The grain import scale in China expands,the net import is normalizing and rising.Among the imported grain varieties,soybean occupies the main share and keeps rising.Based on the conclusion,this paper presents policy suggestions.