SARS对金融业的冲击路径及其影响初探

An Elementary Analysis on the Shock Route of SARS on Finance and Its Effects

本文运用现代冲击理论,首先就SARS引起的金融冲击及其作用和传导机制进行了一般理论分析;然后从6个方面对SARS带来的金融冲击进行了初步估测。文章认为SARS实质上是一种高度不确定性的始于卫生领域的外部真实冲击,这种高度不确定性的外部真实冲击,随着时间的演变在一定程度上将加剧金融体系脆弱性,减缓金融业的发展速度。

The paper first makes an elementary theoretical analysis on the shock of SARS on finance and its transmission mechanism by using the modern shock theory;then it makes a primary estimate of the shock of SARS on financial industry from six different aspects.It holds that SARS is in fact originated from the sanitary realm as a kind of extremely uncertain exterior shock which will,to some degree,exacerbate financial fragility and slow down the development of financial industry in China.