中国高龄老人失能发展轨迹及死亡轨迹

Disability and Mortality Trajectories of the Chinese Oldest-old

文章采用1998~2014年中国老年健康影响因素跟踪调查的7次数据,基于组基轨迹模型,同时探索了高龄老人的日常生活自理能力失能发展轨迹和死亡轨迹,并从人口学特征、社会经济情况、儿童期特征3个角度对失能轨迹类型归属进行解释。分析结果表明,高龄老人的失能发展轨迹存在异质性,男性分为'低起点缓慢发展型''低起点快速发展型'和'高起点缓慢发展型'3种,女性分为'低起点缓慢发展型''低起点快速发展型'和'高起点快速发展型'3种。女性属于'低起点缓慢发展型'的比例低于男性。不同类型的失能轨迹和死亡轨迹的高低分层排序一致,女性的死亡率大多低于相对应类型的男性。高龄老人的居住地和职业类型对失能轨迹类型归属有影响。

Based on seven-wave data of Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey from 1998 to 2014,this article applies group-based trajectory models to jointly estimate disability and mortality trajectories among the Chinese oldest-olds and to explore factors related to the particular disability trajectories.Heterogeneous disability trajectories have been shown for the oldest-olds by gender.Men can be categorized into three groups of trajectories,including'trajectory with a low start and slow growth','trajectory with a low start and rapid growth'and'trajectory with a high start and slow growth'.Women are also categorized into three groups of trajectories,including'trajectory with a low start and slow growth','trajectory with a low start and rapid growth'and'trajectory with a high start and rapid growth'.For women,the proportion of those belonging to the'trajectory of a low start and slow growth'is lower than that of men.For both men and women,the mortality trajectories follow a hierarchy in consistence with disability trajectories.Compared to men belonging to the same group of trajectory,women show lower mortality.Residence and occupations are associated with the oldest-old’s disability trajectory.