模糊网络分析法在公路山岭隧道施工风险分析中的应用

APPLICATION OF FUZZY ANALYTIC NETWORK PROCESS IN RISK ANALYSIS FOR CONSTRUCTION OF HIGHWAY MOUNTAIN TUNNEL

公路山岭隧道施工过程中存在着许多不确定的风险因素,不仅具有随机性,还具有模糊性,目前已有的风险评价方法难以对其进行准确分析。通过建立集德尔菲法、模糊综合评判和网络分析法于一体的模糊网络分析法,将其应用于公路山岭隧道施工风险分析,在公路山岭隧道施工全过程分析基础上,建立公路山岭隧道施工风险评价指标体系。采用专家调查法对二级评价指标进行单因素评价,建立模糊关系矩阵,采用德尔菲法进行两两比较并用三角模糊数表示两两判断矩阵,基于网络分析法构造模糊加权超矩阵,通过计算超矩阵的极限矩阵求得权重向量,得到施工风险水平的评价。通过龙头岭隧道的实证研究,表明该方法是合理实用的,为今后类似工程的风险分析提供参考依据,保障施工安全,降低潜在损失。

The construction of highway mountain tunnel is affected by various uncertain factors with random and fuzzy characteristic,which cannot be exactly analyzed by current risk assessment method. This paper proposes the fuzzy-analytic network process(F-ANP) which is composed by Delphi method,analytic network process and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation. Based on the analysis of the whole process in the construction of the highway mountain tunnel,a synthetic evaluation index system for the construction of highway mountain tunnel is established. A fuzzy relation matrix is established by evaluating the evaluation index with expert investigation,by using Delphi method to compare and using triangular fuzzy number to represent the judgment matrix,a fuzzy super matrix is established with the analytic network process,by evaluating its limit matrix can obtain the comprehensive weight,then obtain the level of construction risk. Finally,empirical research to Longtouling tunnel shows that the method is reasonable and practical,it can provide reference to risk analysis for future similar projects,ensure construction safety and reduce potential losses.