中国经济增长与工业三废计量模型实证分析

Study on the econometric model of Chinese economic growth and industrial "Three Wastes"

本文以环境库兹涅茨曲线(EKC)为理论基础,引用1995~2014年人均GDP数据为经济指标,废水排放总量、废气排放总量、二氧化硫排放总量、固体废料排放总量为环境指标,分析我国经济增长与环境污染治理现状,建立了相应的计量模型以探究我国经济发展对环境质量的影响。研究表明,我国废水排放与人均GDP的关系曲线为倒U+型;废气与人均GDP关系曲线符合EKC曲线呈倒U型;废固排放与人均GDP关系曲线符合正U型曲线。环境综合指标和人均GDP关系曲线符合倒U型左半边。说明不同环境污染指标与经济发展不一定符合EKC曲线,但整体环境污染问题在逐渐改善,要进一步解决环境问题还需要优化产业结构,转变经济增长方式,推动科技发展并持续加大环境污染治理力度。

This paper is based on the environmental kuznets curve(EKC)as the theoretical basis,according to Chinese per capita GDP from 1995 to 2014 as the economic indicators,the total emission of waste water,waste gas emissions,sulfur dioxide emissions,solid waste emissions as environmental indicators.Through analyzing of the economic situation and environmental pollution in our country,establishing the corresponding econometric model to explore the influence on the environment quality of economic development in China.Research shows that Chinese wastewater emissions and the curve of per capita GDP present a inverted U+type;the relationship between the waste gas and GDP per capita conform to the EKC curve and present a u-shaped relationship curve;solid waste emissions and per capita GDP relationship curve fits in u-shaped curve.Comprehensive environmental indices and GDP per capita curve accords with the left side of the inverted u-shaped curve.Research suggests that different pollution index and economic development of China doesn't conform to the EKC curve,but the environmental quality is gradually improving to a better station,to further solve the environmental problems also need government to optimize the industrial structure,transform the mode of economic growth and promote the development of science and technology and continue to strengthen environmental pollution control.