中国典型沿海工业城市碳排放达峰分析

Analysis on Peaking of Carbon Emission in Typical Coastal Industrial Cities of China

中国经济增长与碳排放脱钩是实现《中美气候变化联合声明》中在2030年之前CO_2排放达峰承诺的重要内容。近几年进入"再工业化"的中国沿海工业城市,产业结构的"重工业化"、能源消耗"高碳化"导致CO_2排放总量不断增加,使得单位GDP能耗从低于过渡到高于全国水平。本文选取中国沿海工业城市为研究对象,利用Tapio脱钩模型,探讨了2011-2014年沿海工业城市碳排放与经济增长的脱钩关系,并对2015-2030年沿海工业城市经济发展与碳排放关系进行了预测分析。

The decoupling of economic growth from carbon emission is the important content of the U. S.- China Joint Announcement on Climate Change in which China intends to achieve the peaking of CO_2 emissions around 2030. In recent years,many of China's coastal industrial cities have entered the period of're- industrialization'. The road of'heavy- industrialization'in industrial structure and 'high- carbon'in energy consumption lead to the increasing total amount of carbon emissions and their higher index of energy consumption per unit of GDP than the national average level. This paper aims at discussing decoupling ralations of carbon emissions from economic growth in the selected China's coastal industrial cities from 2011 to 2014 by using Tapio model. With scenario analysis,we also predict ralations of their economic development,energy consumption as well as carbon emissions during 2015 to 2030.