基于因子分析的中国金融风险研究

Study on Chinese Financial Risks on the Basis of Factor Analysis

中国现行的一些金融风险分析的方法主要是定性分析,其显著特征是简便,易于理解和操作,但评价结果具有很强的主观性。因此评价结果的准确性和客观性难以令人信服。而因子分析的基本思想简单的说就是把观测变量分类,将相关性较高即联系比较紧密的变量分在同一类中,使不同类的变量之间的相关性较低,那么每一类变量实际就代表了一个本质因子,因子分析就是寻找系统中这种不可观测的因子或结构。以此为出发点,根据中国的实际情况和选取指标原则选取了9个具有代表性的指标,并搜集了1992—2005年的数据,用因子分析来对金融风险进行定量分析,以把握金融风险的发展趋势,找出影响金融风险的因素,制定防范和化解金融风险的有效措施。

Nowadays,the methods of analyzing financial risks in China are mainly qualitative analysis methods,which is simple,ease to understand and to handle.However,the result of these methods is very subjective.So the result is incredible.The thought of factor analysis is to classify these variables,to put high correlativity variables into the same pattern,so as to reduce correlativity between different variables.Every pattern variable stands for an important factor.Factor analysis is to look for these un-observed factors or structure.Based on this method,according to the situation in china and principle of choosing criterion,this paper has chosen 9 criterions which can stand for Chinese financial risks and collected the data between 1992 and 2005,using the method of factor analysis,analyzed on financial risks,to find out the trend and factors that influence financial risk in China,and to make measures to prevent and convert financial risk.