中国货币状况指数及其在货币政策操作中的运用

Monetary Conditions Index in China's Monetary Policy Operation

作为衡量一国货币政策松紧程度的指标,"货币状况指数"正越来越多地被各国中央银行采用,一些央行以之作为货币政策的操作目标,更多央行把它作为制定货币政策时的参考指标。常规的货币状况指数涵盖利率和汇率两个因素,是协调货币政策与汇率政策的重要依据。本文拓展货币状况指数的概念,综合考察利率、汇率和货币供应量三个因素,在估计中国总需求曲线和菲利浦斯曲线之后,构造反映中国货币政策松紧程度的货币状况指数,分析中国近年实际货币状况指数与经济增长,名义货币状况指数与通货膨胀之间的关系,量化了货币供应量,有效汇率和利率调整对中国货币政策松紧程度变动的贡献率。

More and more central banks have adopted the monetary conditions index as an indicator of monetary policy stance. Some of them have used it as an operation target, the others use it as a reference index. Traditionally, MCI combines the movement of interest rate and the exchange rate. This paper extends by adding monetary aggregates into MCI. After estimation on China' s IS curve and Phillips curve, we create the monetary conditions index and analyze the relationships between real MCI and economic growth, nominal MCI and inflation rate and calculate the contributions of money supply, effective exchange rate and interest rate to the policy condition movement.