自贸试验区对产业链韧性的影响研究

Research on the Influence of Free Trade Zone on the Resilience of Industrial Chain

在加快培育新质生产力,保障产业链供应链安全的背景下,基于2009~2021年285个地级市的面板数据,构建多期双重差分(DID)模型,探究自贸试验区对产业链韧性的影响。研究发现,自贸试验区对产业链韧性有显著正向作用,并通过了PSM-DID、安慰剂检验和更换测度方法等一系列稳健性检验。机制检验结果表明,自贸试验区通过产业结构升级和创新人才集聚两大路径,促进产业链韧性提升。研究证实了自贸试验区提升产业链韧性的实效性,明晰了试点政策的传导路径,并为国家政策制定提供了参考。In the context of accelerating the cultivation of new quality productivity and guaranteeing the security of the industrial chain supply chain, a multi-period difference in difference model (DID) model is constructed based on the panel data of 285 prefectural-level cities from 2009~2021 to explore the impact of the Free Trade Zone (FTZ) on industrial chain resilience. It is found that the FTZ has a significant positive effect on industry chain toughness and passes a series of robustness tests such as PSM-DID, placebo test and replacement of measurement methods. The results of the mechanism test indicate that the FTZ promotes industry chain toughness through two major paths: industrial structure upgrading and innovation talent gathering. The study confirms the effectiveness of the Pilot Free Trade Zone in enhancing the toughness of the industrial chain, clarifies the transmission path of the pilot policy, and provides a reference for national policy formulation.