面向不可移动文物的地震灾害风险评估——以福建省全国重点文物保护单位石窟寺及石刻为例

Seismic hazard risk assessment for the immovable cultural relics:the national key cultural relics protection units of cave temples and stone

以福建省全国重点文物保护单位石窟寺及石刻为例,基于区域自然灾害系统理论,从致灾因子危险性、孕灾环境敏感性以及文物本体脆弱性3个方面,构建不可移动文物的地震灾害风险评估指标体系,结合对文物的实地调查,采用综合指数法、熵权法、专家打分法等计算得到福建省全国重点文物保护单位石窟寺及石刻的地震灾害风险值,并利用自然断裂法划分风险等级.结果表明:1)福建省地震灾害致灾因子危险性呈现南高北低的态势,较高危险性的地区占福建省总面积的1/3左右;2)福建省地震孕灾环境敏感性内陆地区较高,沿海地区较低,山地区域敏感性最高;3)福建省全国重点文物保护单位石窟寺及石刻中,有66%左右处于中等风险及以上,其中鼓山摩崖石刻脆弱性最高,需予以高度重视.

Potential and possible damages that earthquake could inflict on grotto temples and stone carvings in Fujian province are evaluated.Risk of disaster-causing factors,sensitivity of disaster-generating environment,vulnerability of cultural relics were taken into account to build the evaluation system,which combined the comprehensive index method,entropy weighting method and expert scoring method.This system was used to calculate seismic hazard risk values of each cave temple and rock carving.Natural fracture method was used to classify risk levels.The overall spatial distribution of seismic risk in Fujian province was found higher in the south but lower in the north.From the offshore to the inland area,the risk gradually decreased.The sensitivity of environment was found higher in inland areas and lower in coastal areas;sensitivity in east and west areas was relatively low,the southwest was the lowest.About 66%of state-protected cave temples and rock carvings in Fujian were found at medium risk or above,with the highest vulnerability being at the cliff carvings in Gushan,which will need to be given the highest priority.