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Prediction of Climate Change in the 21^(st) Century in Dalian Area under the Various Emission Scenarios 被引量:1

不同排放情景下大连地区21世纪气候变化预估(英文)
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摘要 By using the simulative results of more than 20 climate system models which were provided by the fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC),the climate change in Dalian area in the 21st century under the different scenarios(SRES A2,SRES A1B and SRES B1) were analyzed and predicted with the multi-model's aggregative simulative results via the interpolation downscaling calculation.The results showed that the climate in Dalian would have the obvious warming and wetting tendency in the 21st century as a whole.The annual average warming tendency of air temperature would be 2.45-3.46 ℃/100 years,and the annual precipitation increase trend would be 5.8%-16.3% per 100 years.The warming in winter would be the most obvious,and the precipitation increase would be comparatively obvious in winter and spring.The precipitation decrease would be comparatively obvious in autumn in the previous period of 21st century.In A2,A1B and B1 scenarios,the air temperatures in the late period of 21st century would respectively be 3.46,3.44 and 2.45 ℃ higher than in the ordinary years,and the annual precipitation would respectively be 16.3%,11.8% and 5.79% more than in the ordinary years. By using the simulative results of more than 20 climate system models which were provided by the fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC),the climate change in Dalian area in the 21st century under the different scenarios(SRES A2,SRES A1B and SRES B1) were analyzed and predicted with the multi-model's aggregative simulative results via the interpolation downscaling calculation.The results showed that the climate in Dalian would have the obvious warming and wetting tendency in the 21st century as a whole.The annual average warming tendency of air temperature would be 2.45-3.46 ℃/100 years,and the annual precipitation increase trend would be 5.8%-16.3% per 100 years.The warming in winter would be the most obvious,and the precipitation increase would be comparatively obvious in winter and spring.The precipitation decrease would be comparatively obvious in autumn in the previous period of 21st century.In A2,A1B and B1 scenarios,the air temperatures in the late period of 21st century would respectively be 3.46,3.44 and 2.45 ℃ higher than in the ordinary years,and the annual precipitation would respectively be 16.3%,11.8% and 5.79% more than in the ordinary years.
出处 《Meteorological and Environmental Research》 CAS 2010年第5期66-70,共5页 气象与环境研究(英文版)
基金 Supported by The National Natural Science Fund(40971294) The General Project of Humanities and Social Sciences in Liaoning Education Department(2009A405) The Science and Technology Plan Project of Dalian Technology Bureau(2008E13SF189,2009E11SF230)
关键词 Global climate model IPCC AR4 Climate change Surface temperature PRECIPITATION China Global climate model IPCC AR4 Climate change Surface temperature Precipitation China
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