城镇家庭消费金融效应的地区差异研究

Regional Difference of the Impact of Urban Households' Consumer Finance

本文使用各省市自治区城镇家庭借贷支出的分类面板数据,结合我国经济发展处于转轨期的特性,考察消费升级、社会保障不完善及地区发展不平衡等因素对消费的影响。研究发现各变量在对消费的影响性质和程度上均存在地区差异,社会保障、消费升级和储蓄在全国范围内均显著正相关,房贷支出和教育在中西部地区的促进作用显著,而保险在东部地区作用突出,家庭投资则均不显著。政府要扩大消费内需并改变消费金融发展的不平衡,就应把握消费升级和社会保障制度的推进时机和力度,增加中西部地区社会保障投入和教育投入,持续提高居民收入,适度放宽中西部地区的家庭房贷限制。

The importance of consumer finance increases with promoting domestic demand to boost the economic development,nevertheless,regional difference of consumer finance emerges with the unbalanced economic development. This paper aims to research the influence on consumption by consumption upgrading,inadequate social security and unbalanced regional development,using the panel data of urban households borrowing and lending expenditure and combining the economic transformation characters. It is concluded that the regional difference is widespread in quality and quantity. The positive relationship of consumption with consumption upgrading,social security and deposit exists nationally. Mortgage and education significantly influence consumption in Midwest region,while insurance in the East. Government should grasp the opportunity of consumption upgrading and social security improving and continue to enhance the education input,introduce talents,increase development efforts in Midwest to improve the local residents,population quality,income and savings,in addition to relax the borrowing restrictions.