基于残差GM(1,1)模型的装甲装备巡修成本预测

Cost Prediction of Patrol Repair for Armored Equipments Based on Residual Error GM(1,1) Model

巡修制度的确立对于装甲装备领域的维修保障改革乃至保障体系的整体转型都起着重要的引导和推动作用。针对目前巡修成本预测缺乏科学方法的问题,提出了运用基于残差GM(1,1)模型进行修正的预测方法,并对某装甲装备的巡修备件成本进行了预测和对比,验证了预测方法的可行性。

The establishment of patrol repair system will play an important role as piloting and impulse in the maintenance & support reform of armored equipment and even the transfer construction of the whole support system.As for the problem that the cost of patrol repair lacks scientific approach of evaluation,the prediction method based on grey GM(1,1) residual error correction is presented,the spare part costs of patrol repair for some armored equipment are predicted and compared,and the feasibility of the prediction method is validated.