摘要
With the orthogonal design and the finite element methods, the outside stresses acting on the boundary and the inside tectonic stress field before the 1911 Honghai Bay earthquake are obtained. Under these stress fields, the dislocation patterns of the faults are consistent with the observed ones. Using the softening unstabilization model for elastoplastic media to simulate the process of the earthquake occurrence, 5 moderate and strong earthquakes in these areas in this century are simulated. The results show that the moderate or strong earthquake happened only at the sections of the faults whose fault safety degree is zero. According to the present distribution of the fault safety degree, the authors predict the seismic risk zones there.
With the orthogonal design and the finite element methods, the outside stresses acting on the boundary and the inside tectonic stress field before the 1911 Honghai Bay earthquake are obtained. Under these stress fields, the dislocation patterns of the faults are consistent with the observed ones. Using the softening unstabilization model for elastoplastic media to simulate the process of the earthquake occurrence, 5 moderate and strong earthquakes in these areas in this century are simulated. The results show that the moderate or strong earthquake happened only at the sections of the faults whose fault safety degree is zero. According to the present distribution of the fault safety degree, the authors predict the seismic risk zones there.
