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Wavelet time series MPARIMA modeling for power system short term load forecasting

Wavelet time series MPARIMA modeling for power system short term load forecasting
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摘要 The wavelet power system short term load forecasting(STLF) uses a mulriple periodical autoregressive integrated moving average(MPARIMA) model to model the mulriple near periodicity, nonstationarity and nonlinearity existed in power system short term quarter hour load time series, and can therefore accurately forecast the quarter hour loads of weekdays and weekends, and provide more accurate results than the conventional techniques, such as artificial neural networks and autoregressive moving average(ARMA) models test results. Obtained with a power system networks in a city in Northeastern part of China confirm the validity of the approach proposed. The wavelet power system short term load forecasting(STLF) uses a mulriple periodical autoregressive integrated moving average(MPARIMA) model to model the mulriple near periodicity, nonstationarity and nonlinearity existed in power system short term quarter hour load time series, and can therefore accurately forecast the quarter hour loads of weekdays and weekends, and provide more accurate results than the conventional techniques, such as artificial neural networks and autoregressive moving average(ARMA) models test results. Obtained with a power system networks in a city in Northeastern part of China confirm the validity of the approach proposed.
出处 《Journal of Harbin Institute of Technology(New Series)》 EI CAS 2003年第1期11-18,共8页 哈尔滨工业大学学报(英文版)
基金 theMultidisciplineScientificResearchFoundationofHarbinInstituteofTechnology(GrantNo .HITMD .2 0 0 0 18)
关键词 wavelet forecasting method short term load forecast MPARIMA model 微波预测法 MPARIMA模型 短期载荷预测 电力系统
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