损失规避偏好下的定制件采购决策分析

Decision analysis for order-specific component procurement with loss-averse (utility)

讨论了有损失规避偏好的按单制造企业所面临的定制件采购决策问题.由于采购提前期较长,在产品设计完成之前提前采购,有助于保证顾客订单的按期交货,但是会造成大量呆滞库存品;在产品设计完成之后进行关键件的采购,会减少呆滞库存量,但是会造成顾客订单的延期交货.如何权衡呆滞库存与延期交货,除要考虑各种成本与收益因素之外,还要考虑决策者的风险偏好.假定决策者具损失规避效用函数,而且顾客订单不能部分交货条件下,在建立问题的数学模型之后,讨论了最优采购决策的存在性,分析了损失规避程度、部件需求不确定性以及部件本身特性对最优采购策略的影响.分析结果显示,损失规避制造企业的采购行为在一定的条件下和风险中性、风险规避制造企业不同,也不同于直觉判断.这将有助于采购策略、供应契约的设计及供应链的协调管理.

This paper studied a procurement problem faced by the make_to_order manufacturer with loss_averse utility, who will purchase additional units of an order_specific component besides his advanced purchasing. Because of long leadtime, the advanced procurement was an important way to increase the possibility of on_time delivery, and it might result in a lot of dead inventory. It was a big challenge to the make_to_order company to tradeoff the dead inventory and late delivery. After a mathematical purchasing_problem model was setting up, the existence of the optimal solution was proved and the effect of loss aversion, the uncertainty of the component demand, the supply contract parameters, and the component nature etc. on the purchasing decision were studied. As a result, our research reveals that the loss_averse manufacturer's purchasing decision is different from the manufacturer's with risk_neutral utility and risk_averse utility, and it is not in line with the intuition under some circumstances.