京津唐水资源分析及预测

The Analysis and Forecast for Water Resource in Beijing Tianjin Tangshan Area

分析了京津唐水资源与海滦河流域４０站夏季降水量的关系。结果表明，水资源总量与降水量的逐年变化是相当一致的，降水对京津唐水资源有显著影响的区域在滦河中下游、永定河、大清河上游及滏阳新河。建立了显著影响区域降水量与水资源量的关系方程，复相关系数达０．９６。还指出，受气候变化影响京津唐水资源逐年代递减趋势是非常明显的，尤以入境水的减少最为突出，应引起足够的重视。还探讨了水资源的预测方法，以冬季南支急流指数、赤道东太平洋海温为预报因子，分析其与水资源量的关系，建立了预报方程，结果表明冬季南支急流和海温的变化对水资源总量有很好的预报意义。

he analysis is made for the relationship between the water resource in Beijing Tianjin Tangshan area and the summer precipition over the forty stations in the Haihe river basin and the Luanhe river Basin. It shows that interannual changes of water resource and precipitation are often in coincidence. The precipitation over the middle and lower reaches of the Luanhe river, the basin of the Yongdinghe river, the upper reaches of the Daqinghe river and the basin of the Fuyangxinhe river have important effects on the water resource in this area.Therelation equation of water resource and the precipitation over the important area has been made,the multiple correlation coefficient is 0. 96. The water resource in this area obviousely decreased decade by decade, especially the inflow water decreased extremely under the influence of climatic change. This suggests that we should pay more attention to this problem.The forecast methods for water resource in this ares are studied. It is shown, the south branch of winter jetstream in Asia and the sea surface temperature(SST) in the eastern equatorial Pacific may be used as reliable forecast parameters for the water resource, and theforecast equations are made by these parameters.