摘要
本文从理论上分析了灰色系统预测GM(1,1)模型的适用条件。针对电力系统中电力需求增长的特点,提出了分段最优GM(1,1)模型。利用电力需求的增长与国民经济增长的相关关系,把分段最优GM(1,1)模型应用于长期电力需求预测,并用实例证明了此方法的可行性。
In this paper, the application conditions of the grey prediction model GM(1, 1) are studied, the method of the sectioning optimization for GM(1, 1) model is proposed in the long-term forecasting load. The load is forecasted in accordance with the relr.ticn between the increments of the electric power demanded and the increments of the national economy. The calculation result proved that this method is feasible and effective.
出处
《系统工程》
CSCD
1994年第2期67-71,共5页
Systems Engineering
基金
国家自然科学基金资助课题
关键词
灰色系统理论
电力系统
载荷
预测
grey prediction model, load forecasting, electric power demand, sectioning optimization
